NAND Prices Decline at the Trading End Amid Cash-Out Pressures, with slight price reductions for 512Gb TLC and 1Tb QLC wafers

Since the fourth quarter of last year, original manufacturers have continuously and rapidly increased Memory resource prices for several consecutive months. In February of this year, the spot market price for 512Gb TLC NAND broke through the $0.30/GB mark for the first time. However, the second quarter is traditionally an off-season for the consumer market. As Memory manufacturers raised prices for finished products in tandem with the surge in resource costs, it continuously tested customers' tolerance for high-priced Memory products. In particular, shipments of high-capacity enterprise SSDs and embedded eMMC products have faced mounting pressure. Except for a few Memory manufacturers with inherently low inventory levels who can still absorb current high resource prices, non-essential procurement has become increasingly cautious, making it evidently difficult for original manufacturers to continue pushing up resource prices this quarter.

Meanwhile, since mid-to-late March, spot trading prices for NAND wafers have reversed course and begun to decline. Despite intermittent buying interest in the market, the downward trend in wafer trading prices remains unstoppable. Recently, some smaller traders under cash-out pressures have continuously lowered their quotes. After months of gradual decline, certain wafers have fallen back to their price levels from late January. To reflect the current changes in spot resource trading prices, the prices for 512Gb TLC and 1Tb QLC wafers were adjusted down to $22.50 and $26.50, respectively, today.

Nevertheless, the server market continues to show robust demand for Memory, absorbing a massive amount of NAND capacity. With limited allocations from original manufacturers, NAND resource prices remain firmly at high levels, with some even seeing slight increases. Given that original manufacturer prices have not shown any significant softening and no major traders have engaged in panic selling, the likelihood of a sharp drop in NAND wafer prices remains low. The divergence between original manufacturer NAND resource prices and spot trading prices is expected to persist for some time.

As the quarter draws to a close, channel distributors are entering their final inventory and settlement phase, with this quarter's performance largely locked in. Moreover, downstream customers show weak purchasing intentions and minimal restocking demand. Even if prices drop, it is unlikely to boost shipments in the short term. Consequently, channel SSD and UDIMM prices will likely remain sideways for now.

Since the beginning of this year, original manufacturers have continuously pushed up NAND wafer prices. Although the momentum for further price hikes has weakened in the second quarter, prices have remained firm, with some resources still creeping upward. More importantly, Memory manufacturers are actively promoting QLC solutions, but mainstream resource supply lacks continuity and stability, with average selling prices generally above $0.20/GB. The combination of ongoing structural supply shortages and high resource costs provides strong cost support, making enterprise SSD prices prone to rising but difficult to fall. Currently, the volume of slowly declining spot wafer trading prices is relatively small. Even if buyers take advantage of lower prices to restock moderately, the relief on overall cost pressures remains limited. Most resources still rely on allocations from original manufacturers, and enterprise SSDs and SODIMM have remained largely unchanged this week.

Since the second quarter, the market has seen an influx of low-priced eMMC products with capacities of 64GB and above. Recently, trade quotes for certain 128GB eMMC solutions based on QLC NAND have been particularly aggressive. Furthermore, the varying quality of spot-market embedded products, stemming from the use of different resources, has exacerbated market chaos. Meanwhile, the die-stacking solutions for high-capacity eMMC products inherently carry high costs and lack a price advantage, making it difficult for them to match the low prices of market competitors. Therefore, embedded eMMC prices are primarily maintained at stable levels.