As we approach the end of the third quarter, resource prices have been on a continuous upward trend for nearly three months. Consequently, prices for industrial-grade DDR5 secondary-grade dies and embedded LP resources have surged to historical highs. However, for finished products like industrial DDR5 SODIMM and LP4X/5X, customer price tolerance is nearing its limit. Faced with shrinking demand, some memory manufacturers have begun to slow down their resource procurement. The state of "low demand, low stocking, and low shipments" is likely to persist for some time.
Over the nearly six months since last September, the price of secondary-grade dies suitable for industrial DDR5 SODIMM increased by more than sixfold. After prices declined in late March and remained flat for a month, they rebounded in early Q3, pushing prices for DDR5 secondary-grade dies to new historical highs. In response to rolling cost increases, manufacturers have raised prices for related finished products in stages. However, excessively high product prices are facing increasing resistance from customers; only a few overseas clients can still accept the high prices. This week, prices for industrial 8GB/16GB DDR5 SODIMM saw a slight increase. Currently, more PC OEMs are evaluating a shift towards downgraded solutions to cope with cost pressures. This shift in customer demand will make shipments even more difficult, leading industrial memory manufacturers to be more cautious about stocking high-priced resources in the future.
Today, Flash Wafer prices remained unchanged. On the DDR side, DDR5 16Gb Major and DDR5 16Gb eTT prices rose slightly to $45.00 and $26.00, respectively.
Last week, driven by the rise in DDR5 resource prices, memory manufacturers raised finished product prices in line with costs. Although customers still need some time to accept the new pricing, resource prices continue to rise and supply is tightening. Consequently, channel DDR5 UDIMM may see passive price increases in the future. The sustainability of these finished product price hikes depends on the demand side's ability to absorb them. This week, prices for channel DDR5/DDR4 UDIMM and SSDs remained flat.
As prices for original manufacturer LPDDR resources continue to climb, reaching historical peaks for this year, the cost increases have not effectively or sustainably driven up prices for corresponding finished products. LP4X/LP5X products only saw brief price increases in June. Since July, prices for some LP4X products have turned downward. This is mainly due to chaotic pricing across different grades of LP4X products in the market; especially for high-capacity LP4X products, there is a price gap of tens of dollars between high-grade and low-grade solutions. Under the pressure of high hardware costs from expensive memory products, more end customers are turning to more price-competitive, lower-end LP4X products. In contrast, LP5X is mostly used in high-end application scenarios where customers have strict quality requirements. Even though some manufacturers have used old inventory as a buffer to secure new orders with lower prices, the price difference among manufacturers is relatively small. Therefore, LP5X prices are firmer than LP4X, and their trends have diverged. Large-capacity LP4X prices will remain under pressure in the future.
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