DDR5 UDIMM Prices Continue to Rise, but Momentum Remains in Question as Spot Prices Soften

This week, the spot memory market showed a divergent trend. 16GB/32GB DDR5 UDIMM continued to see slight price increases due to rising resource costs. Conversely, the LPDDR4X market faced downward pressure on 8GB pricing, driven by ample supply and persistent weak demand. Prices for other finished memory products remained largely flat.

On the supply side, although upstream original manufacturers remain firmly committed to stabilizing prices, the lack of buying support has led some traders to accelerate shipments with aggressive pricing. Consequently, spot Flash Wafer prices have yet to bottom out, widening the gap between original NAND prices and trading prices. Recently, CFM slightly lowered its quotes for 512Gb TLC and 1Tb QLC to $21.00 and $25.00, respectively. Given that memory manufacturers are holding high inventory levels—and actual shipments for embedded eMMC and industrial SSDs have been difficult since Q3, resulting in limited inventory depletion—the shipment pressure on original NAND manufacturers is expected to intensify as trading prices continue to decline.

Since mid-to-late June, the continuous monthly rise in DDR5 UDIMM chip prices has rolled over into production costs, driving a comprehensive rebound in DDR5 UDIMM prices. Current prices for various capacities have returned to the historical highs seen in March this year, with some large-capacity products even hitting record highs. This week, 16GB/32GB DDR5 UDIMMs saw further marginal increases. However, the demand backlash from higher selling prices is intensifying, with more customers finding it difficult to bear the higher costs. As DDR5 UDIMM chips are often procured through bidding, some memory manufacturers have begun to lower their target procurement prices, leading to a recent softening in original chip prices. If resource prices continue to fall, channel manufacturers' cost pressures may ease effectively, potentially leading to dynamic adjustments in finished product prices. Therefore, the sustainability of the DDR5 module price hike warrants close attention.

DDR5 SODIMM, made from lower-tier resources, offer a clear price advantage. Coupled with fierce competition among manufacturers and the persistent price gap between domestic and overseas markets, the recent slight loosening of domestic DDR5 chip prices has made it increasingly difficult for industrial manufacturers to anchor Mainland pricing to overseas levels. As a result, manufacturers are expected to intensify efforts to boost shipments to overseas markets. Notably, DDR5 SODIMM chip prices are diverging: overseas original chips continue to rise, pushing up the cost of corresponding resource solutions. This week, industrial memory module prices remained temporarily flat. On the industrial SSD front, market demand has been lukewarm since the post-National Day holiday period, with few customer inquiries. Even small price concessions have failed to stimulate demand. In the short term, memory manufacturers are maintaining current prices while seeking new customer bases to accelerate product adoption and validation. Overall, DDR SODIMM and SSD prices remained basically unchanged this week.

Recently, the resource market has shown a divergent trend: domestic resource prices have slipped slightly, while overseas original manufacturer prices continue to rise. If relevant resource prices continue to correct downward, production costs will improve, creating greater room for LPDDR product price adjustments. Additionally, some terminal manufacturers have dumped 8GB LPDDR4X inventory, leading to ample market supply. With customer procurement demand remaining sluggish, memory manufacturers face even greater shipment challenges, causing 8GB LPDDR4X prices to dip slightly this week.