CPCA: the policy incentives for commercial vehicle renewal subsidies in 2026 will remain unchanged

China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) stated that the policy incentives for commercial vehicle renewal subsidies in 2026 will remain unchanged, while subsidies for passenger vehicle scrapping and replacement are projected to decrease by 20% and up to 30%, respectively, compared to the 2025 structure. The growth momentum for commercial vehicles in 2026 is expected to outperform that of passenger vehicles. The passenger vehicle market is anticipated to follow a "U-shaped" trend—starting high, dipping in the middle, and rising again later in the year—with overall vehicle sales volume roughly flat compared to 2025 domestic retail figures. Exports are projected to maintain medium-to-high growth of over 10%, but due to significant domestic inventory reduction pressures, the wholesale volume forecast for passenger vehicle manufacturers indicates only a 1% increase.